Market Dashboard
In 2011 the Austin/Central Texas market for residential real estate looks a lot more like a "normal" seasonal market than it has since before the housing downturn and recession. Sales have slowed a little since school started, but so has the introduction of new listing inventory. At the end of September, this market was carrying about 5 1/2 months' supply of inventory -- below the 6 to 6 1/2 months' that most analysts consider "balanced" market conditions (click all charts to enlarge):
Even more encouraging: for three consecutive months -- July, August, and September -- unit sales were up more than 30% compared to the same time last year!
That is very good news, but June 2011 home sales were still down almost 25% from the peak in June 2007, and 3rd Quarter 2011 sales were 26% lower than 3rd Quarter 2007, when our market began its slide about a year after national housing downturn. This is a situation where "last in, first out" is the right place to be.
The market absorption rate (i.e., "odds of selling" in these charts) dipped a little in September, below the long-term average of 20% but still in the range that has historically indicated the beginning of a growth phase:
Median and average sale prices were down in September compared to August -- again looking like a more typical, pre-recession seasonal pattern. The average sale price in September 2011 was basically flat compared with last year -- up just $600 to $246,800:
Keep in mind that this is the first Fall in three years that wasn't distorted by a tax incentive of some sort to encourage home sales. The last one ended in June 2010. The result was that sales in July 2010 included very few entry-level homes, so the average sale price spiked very dramatically. That market distortion undoubtedly affected sales and sale prices in subsequent months, but by how much is hard to discern. October 2010 did show another unusually large (unseasonal) jump in sale prices, but the general trend was downward from July 2010 through February 2011. The 12-month rolling average sale price declined noticeably in 3rd Quarter 2011 as we left that July 2010 spike behind:
Aside from continuing local economic growth and job creation, another factor that has allowed Austin-area home values to weather the past few years better than the cities we read and hear about in the national news is a relatively low number of distressed home sales -- short sales and foreclosures.
Forecasts for the Austin regional economy remain positive, and even as conditions soften elsewhere Texas generally and Austin specifically continue to grow. As we continue to attract employers to relocate to Austin, and continue to spawn local growth and job creation, the housing market will benefit. Without solid signs of recovery in the national economy I expect conditions here to remain somewhat spotty, but all local indicators call for a new growth phase in our housing sector, with higher sales and increasing sale prices.
Even more encouraging: for three consecutive months -- July, August, and September -- unit sales were up more than 30% compared to the same time last year!
That is very good news, but June 2011 home sales were still down almost 25% from the peak in June 2007, and 3rd Quarter 2011 sales were 26% lower than 3rd Quarter 2007, when our market began its slide about a year after national housing downturn. This is a situation where "last in, first out" is the right place to be.
The market absorption rate (i.e., "odds of selling" in these charts) dipped a little in September, below the long-term average of 20% but still in the range that has historically indicated the beginning of a growth phase:
Median and average sale prices were down in September compared to August -- again looking like a more typical, pre-recession seasonal pattern. The average sale price in September 2011 was basically flat compared with last year -- up just $600 to $246,800:
Keep in mind that this is the first Fall in three years that wasn't distorted by a tax incentive of some sort to encourage home sales. The last one ended in June 2010. The result was that sales in July 2010 included very few entry-level homes, so the average sale price spiked very dramatically. That market distortion undoubtedly affected sales and sale prices in subsequent months, but by how much is hard to discern. October 2010 did show another unusually large (unseasonal) jump in sale prices, but the general trend was downward from July 2010 through February 2011. The 12-month rolling average sale price declined noticeably in 3rd Quarter 2011 as we left that July 2010 spike behind:
Aside from continuing local economic growth and job creation, another factor that has allowed Austin-area home values to weather the past few years better than the cities we read and hear about in the national news is a relatively low number of distressed home sales -- short sales and foreclosures.
Forecasts for the Austin regional economy remain positive, and even as conditions soften elsewhere Texas generally and Austin specifically continue to grow. As we continue to attract employers to relocate to Austin, and continue to spawn local growth and job creation, the housing market will benefit. Without solid signs of recovery in the national economy I expect conditions here to remain somewhat spotty, but all local indicators call for a new growth phase in our housing sector, with higher sales and increasing sale prices.
